Default and the maturity structure in sovereign bonds

This paper studies the maturity composition and the term structure of interest rate spreads of government debt in emerging markets. We document that in Argentina, Brazil, Mexico, and Russia, when interest rate spreads rise, debt maturity shortens and the spread on short-term bonds is higher than on long-term bonds. To account for this pattern, we build a dynamic model of international borrowing with endogenous default and multiple maturities of debt. Short-term debt can deliver higher immediate consumption than long-term debt; large longterm loans are not available because the borrower cannot commit to save in the near future towards repayment in the far future.> ; However, issuing long-term debt can insure against the need to roll-over short-term debt at high interest rate spreads. The trade-off between these two benefits is quantitatively important for understanding the maturity composition in emerging markets. When calibrated to data from Brazil, the model matches the dynamics in the maturity of debt issuances and its comovement with the level of spreads across maturities.Bonds ; Debt ; Default (Finance) ; Emerging markets ; International finance

Dollarization and financial integration

How does a country's choice of exchange rate regime impact its ability to borrow from abroad? We build a small open economy model in which the government can potentially respond to shocks via domestic monetary policy and by international borrowing. We assume that debt repayment must be incentive compatible when the default punishment is equivalent to permanent exclusion from debt markets. We compare a floating regime to full dollarization. ; We find that dollarization is potentially beneficial, even though it means the loss of the monetary instrument, precisely because this loss can strengthen incentives to maintain access to debt markets. Given stronger repayment incentives, more borrowing can be supported, and thus dollarization can increase international financial integration. This prediction of theory is consistent with the experiences of El Salvador and Ecuador, which recently dollarized, as well as with that of highly-indebted countries like Italy which adopted the Euro as part of Economic and Monetary Union: in each case, around the time of regime change, spreads on foreign currency government debt declined substantially.Financial crises ; Foreign exchange administration

Default and the maturity structure in sovereign bonds

This paper studies the maturity composition and the term structure of interest rate spreads of government debt in emerging markets. In the data, when interest rate spreads rise, debt maturity shortens and the spread on short-term bonds is higher than on long-term bonds. To account for this pattern, we build a dynamic model of international borrowing with endogenous default and multiple maturities of debt. Short-term debt can deliver higher immediate consumption than long-term debt; large long-term loans are not available because the borrower cannot commit to save in the near future towards repayment in the far future. However, issuing long-term debt can insure against the need to roll-over short-term debt at high interest rate spreads. The trade-off between these two benefits is quantitatively important for understanding the maturity composition in emerging markets. When calibrated to data from Brazil, the model matches the dynamics in the maturity of debt issuances and its comovement with the level of spreads across maturities.Bonds ; Debt ; Default (Finance)

Fricciones crediticias y 'paradas repentinas' en pequeñas economías abiertas: un marco de equilibrio del ciclo económico para crisis en mercados emergentes

(Disponible en idioma inglés únicamente) Las fricciones financieras son un elemento central de la mayoría de los modelos que ha propuesto la obra publicada sobre los mercados emergentes para explicar el fenómeno de las paradas repentinas. A la fecha, son pocos los estudios que han procurado analizar las implicaciones cuantitativas de esos modelos e integrarlos a un marco de equilibrio del ciclo económico de las economías emergentes. En este trabajo se analizan esos estudios, considerándoselos variaciones de la capacidad de pago y de la disposición a pagar en un marco que ocasionalmente incorpora limitantes del endeudamiento al modelo del ciclo económico real de economías pequeñas que a veces resultan de obligatorio acatamiento. Una característica que tienen en común los diversos modelos es que los agentes toman en cuenta el riesgo de paradas repentinas futuras en sus planes óptimos, de modo que las asignaciones de equilibrio y los precios se distorsionan incluso cuando las limitantes crediticias no son obligatorias. Las paradas repentinas pertenecen al equilibrio competitivo de precios flexibles y únicos de esos modelos, que ocurren en una región determinada del espacio del Estado en el que sacudidas negativas hacen obligatorias las limitantes al endeudamiento. Los efectos resultantes no lineales implican que resolver los modelos requiere métodos numéricos no lineales, los cuales se describen en el sondeo. Los resultados demuestran que los modelos pueden arrojar paradas repentinas poco frecuentes con efectos negativos de la cuenta corriente y recesiones profundas enmarcadas en ciclos económicos más suaves. Aún así, las investigaciones en este campo se hallan en una etapa incipiente y este estudio procura estimular nuevos trabajos en esta área.

Credit Frictions and 'Sudden Stops' in Small Open Economies: An Equilibrium Business Cycle Framework for Emerging Markets Crises

Financial frictions are a central element of most of the models that the literature on emerging markets crises has proposed for explaining the Sudden Stop' phenomenon. To date, few studies have aimed to examine the quantitative implications of these models and to integrate them with an equilibrium business cycle framework for emerging economies. This paper surveys these studies viewing them as ability-to-pay and willingness-to-pay variations of a framework that adds occasionally binding borrowing constraints to the small open economy real-business-cycle model. A common feature of the different models is that agents factor in the risk of future Sudden Stops in their optimal plans, so that equilibrium allocations and prices are distorted even when credit constraints do not bind. Sudden Stops are a property of the unique, flexible-price competitive equilibrium of these models that occurs in a particular region of the state space in which negative shocks make borrowing constraints bind. The resulting nonlinear effects imply that solving the models requires non-linear numerical methods, which are described in the survey. The results show that the models can yield relatively infrequent Sudden Stops with large current account reversals and deep recessions nested within smoother business cycles. Still, research in this area is at an early stage and this survey aims to stimulate further work.

Firm dynamics and financial development

This paper studies the impact of cross-country variation in financial market development on firms’ financing choices and growth rates using comprehensive firm-level datasets. We document that in less financially developed economies, small firms grow faster and have lower debt to asset ratios than large firms. We then develop a quantitative model where financial frictions drive firm growth and debt financing through the availability of credit and default risk. We parameterize the model to the firms’ financial structure in the data and show that financial restrictions can account for the majority of the difference in growth rates between firms of different sizes across countries. ; Original title: Contract enforcement and firms' financingContracts ; Debt management

Default risk and income fluctuations in emerging economies

Recent sovereign defaults in emerging countries are accompanied by interest rate spikes and deep recessions. This paper develops a small open economy model to study default risk and its interaction with output, consumption, and foreign debt. Default probabilities and interest rates depend on incentives for repayment. Default occurs in equilibrium because asset markets are incomplete. The model predicts that default incentives and interest rates are higher in recessions, as observed in the data. The reason is that in a recession, a risk averse borrower finds it more costly to repay non-contingent debt and is more likely to default. In a quantitative exercise the model matches various features of the business cycle in Argentina such as: high volatility of interest rates, higher volatility of consumption relative to output, a negative correlation of interest rates and output and a negative correlation of the trade balance and output. The model can also predict the recent default episode in Argentina.

Default risk and income fluctuations in emerging economies

Recent sovereign defaults in emerging countries are accompanied by interest rate spikes and deep recessions. This paper develops a small open economy model to study default risk and its interaction with output, consumption, and foreign debt. Default probabilities and interest rates depend on incentives for repayment. Default occurs in equilibrium because asset markets are incomplete. The model predicts that default incentives and interest rates are higher in recessions, as observed in the data. The reason is that in a recession, a risk averse borrower finds it more costly to repay non-contingent debt and is more likely to default. In a quantitative exercise the model matches various features of the business cycle in Argentina such as: high volatility of interest rates, higher volatility of consumption relative to output, a negative correlation of interest rates and output and a negative correlation of the trade balance and output. The model can also predict the recent default episode in Argentina

La efectividad del impuesto a la salida de divisas como tributo regulador en el país.

Política FiscalEn el 2007 el Gobierno Ecuatoriano introdujo el Impuesto a la Salida de Divisas (ISD)1, con la tarifa 0,5% y ascendió al 5%, como la principal herramienta de la Administración Tributaria para controlar el flujo de divisas al exterior. El objetivo general del estudio se centra en evaluar la recaudación del tributo como regulador de los flujos de capitales hacia el exterior. La metodología aplicada fue de análisis cuantitativo, se revisó las cifras oficiales de organismos gubernamentales, para realizar un estudio de la incidencia del ISD en los aspectos económicos y tributarios, aplicando herramientas de cálculos como tablas dinámicas y gráficos explicativos para interpretar con objetividad los resultados obtenidos. La tasa impositiva no logró controlar la salida de divisas en el sistema financiero nacional, según el análisis de la Balanza de Pagos, antes y después de la existencia del ISD. En conclusión, la medida que implementó el Estado, a pesar que es un instrumento de política económica refleja una asociación de fin fiscal, demostrado en el incremento de la recaudación desde la vigencia del impuesto y en la mínima regulación de la salida de divisas.In 2007 the Ecuadorian Government introduced the Tax Remittance (DSI), the rate reached 0.5% and 5%, as the main tool of the Tax Administration to control the flow of foreign currency abroad. The overall objective of the study focuses on assessing the tax revenue as a regulator of capital flowing outward. The methodology used was a quantitative analysis, official figures from government agencies were revised to conduct a study of the impact of DSI on economic and tax issues, using calculating tools like dynamic tables and explanatory graphics to interpret objectively the results obtained. The tax rate failed to control the outflow of foreign exchange in the national financial system, according to the study of the payments balance, before and after the existence of the DSI. In conclusion, the measure was implemented by the state, although it is an instrument of economic policy that reflects an association of fiscal end, shown in the increase in revenue from the tax effect and minimal regulation of foreign exchange outflow